The upcoming week is expected to be volatile. Monday, April 6, is the deadline for Trump's ultimatum regarding Iran. Ahead of this event, both sides exchanged bellicose statements, indicating that the likelihood of de-escalation remains extremely low. The head of the White House promised to "unleash hell" on Iran if the Strait of Hormuz is not unblocked, while Tehran promised to "send Trump to the depths of hell," making it clear that the strait will remain blocked.
It is important to note that Trump has previously extended the deadline for his ultimatum, claiming "progress in negotiations" (a claim Iran has repeatedly denied), so the possibility of this scenario repeating itself cannot be ruled out. In such a case, macroeconomic reports will again take center stage, especially since the economic calendar for the upcoming week is filled with important events for the EUR/USD pair.
Monday
On Monday, the ISM Services Index will be published in the US. The services sector accounts for about 70% of the country's GDP, so the market typically reacts sharply to changes in this indicator. According to preliminary forecasts, the index will remain in the expansion zone but will decrease to 54.8 after a sharp rise to 56.1. Such a result will support the dollar, especially against the backdrop of the rising ISM Manufacturing Index, which has hit nearly a four-year high.
It is also worth noting that April 6 is Easter Monday in many countries (including the US), so liquidity may be low on that day, while volatility may be high.
Tuesday
On Tuesday, mainly secondary reports will be released, such as the final estimates of the PMI indexes for March, the Sentix investor confidence indicator, and US consumer credit volume. The data on durable goods orders in the US is of particular interest. Moderate growth is expected: after a weak start to the year (with the January figure at 0.0%), the market hopes for recovery; however, the volatile component—aircraft manufacturing (Boeing orders)—could significantly distort the overall picture. Overall orders are expected to decrease by 1.0%, while the "cleaned" figure (excluding defense and aviation) is expected to increase by 0.5%. Even if the report comes in at the forecast level (especially the core figure), it will still support the dollar.
Wednesday
On Wednesday, the minutes from the March Federal Reserve meeting will be published. Recall that at the conclusion of this meeting, the Fed left all parameters of monetary policy unchanged, implementing the basic and most expected scenario. At the same time, Jerome Powell's rhetoric put pressure on the dollar, even though he assured markets that the central bank would keep rates at their current level until inflation began to slow on a stable basis. The dollar came under pressure amid "not hawkish enough" rhetoric from the Fed. Unlike the European Central Bank, the Fed does not consider tightening monetary policy and still allows for one rate cut by the end of the current year (according to the updated dot-plot forecast). The Fed minutes could either amplify or weaken the "effect of the March meeting." If cautious themes (concerns about economic growth and labor market conditions) prevail in the document, the dollar may again come under pressure, especially against the euro (as the divergence in the monetary paths of the ECB and the Fed favors EUR/USD buyers). However, in my view, the minutes are likely to reiterate the main points Powell raised. In other words, the central bank will likely emphasize inflation and adopt a wait-and-see stance. The option of raising rates will not be dominant if it is even mentioned in the minutes. In this case, the market will likely simply ignore the release.
Thursday
On Thursday, the final estimate of the US GDP for Q4 2025 will be published. Recall that the second estimate was revised downward (from 1.4% to 0.7%). Given that the third quarter ended with fairly strong growth of 4.4%, most analysts expect the final estimate to align with the second, leaving it at 0.7%. Any deviation from the "baseline" scenario could trigger significant volatility in the EUR/USD pair.
Additionally, on Thursday, the core PCE index will be published in the US—one of the key inflation indicators that the Fed closely monitors, as it better reflects long-term inflation trends. For three months (from November to January), it had been actively accelerating, rising to 3.1% in January. According to forecasts, the index is expected to remain at January's level in February. Such a result (and any result above three percent) will support the dollar.
The Unemployment Claims report, which will also be released on Thursday, may also influence the EUR/USD pair. But only if it significantly deviates from the forecast level (+210,000), meaning either falling below the 200,000 mark (unlikely) or exceeding the 230,000 target (also unlikely).
Friday
On Friday, all attention will be focused on another, no less important indicator of inflation in the US. We'll learn the CPI figure for March. The overall CPI is expected to show a strong increase—from 2.4% to 3.4% (the highest level since May 2024). This trend seems logical, as the main driver here is "black gold." The cost of automotive fuel in the US has already reached its highest level in nearly four years: the national average retail price of gasoline is $4.081 per gallon.
The core consumer price index, excluding food and energy prices, is also expected to accelerate—from 2.5% to 2.7% (the highest level since September last year).
If the report comes in at least at the forecast level (not to mention in the green zone), the dollar will once again be "on top," as the market will definitively rule out the possibility of a Fed rate cut in the coming months.
Thus, we are expecting a busy, informative, and volatile week. The inflation reports and ISM Services are expected to support the US currency, allowing EUR/USD sellers to test the 14th figure area (the support level is at 1.1490, which corresponds to the lower line of the Bollinger Bands on the H4 timeframe). A sustained rise in EUR/USD is only possible if Trump and Iran take mutual steps towards de-escalation in the Middle East. However, judging by the latest statements from both sides, such a scenario seems highly unlikely.
